As the NFL Season Nears Its End, Giants and Raiders Vie for No. 1 Draft Pick
As the 2024 NFL regular season winds towards its end, the anticipation surrounding the 2025 NFL Draft is reaching fever pitch. Amidst the excitement of playoff races, the battle for the top pick in the draft has boiled down to a fierce competition between two teams — the New York Giants and the Las Vegas Raiders, each burdened with a 2-12 record.
Currently, the Giants and Raiders are deadlocked, both desperately seeking relief in the form of a franchise quarterback. Their struggles throughout the season have painfully exposed this glaring need, and it’s become a focal point of their strategies as they head into the final stretch of their schedules.
While there are whispers of hope from five other teams that still linger in the background, the focus has increasingly shifted to two coveted draft prospects — Shedeur Sanders of the Colorado Buffaloes and Cam Ward from the Miami Hurricanes. These young talents have captured the attention of scouts and fans alike, and for the Giants and Raiders, the prospect of landing either player could change the trajectory of their franchises.
Historical Context and Present Challenges
The weight of history looms large for both organizations. The Giants have only held the top draft pick twice, once in 1951 when they selected Kyle Rote, and then in 1965 with their choice of Tucker Frederickson. Meanwhile, the Raiders have had the No. 1 pick just once post-1970, taking JaMarcus Russell in 2007 — a pick that has since become a cautionary tale of unmet expectations.
Both teams are in the midst of agonizing losing streaks. The Giants are reeling from nine consecutive defeats, and their remaining matchups against the Atlanta Falcons, Philadelphia Eagles, and Indianapolis Colts offer limited light at the end of the tunnel. Injuries have further complicated matters for the Giants, with potential quarterback Tim Boyle stepping in as replacements Tommy DeVito and Drew Lock sit sidelined.
The Raiders are not faring any better, with a ten-game losing streak shadowing their ambitions. They started the season with promise, boasting a stable 2-2 record, but the tides have soured since. Their remaining games pit them against the Jacksonville Jaguars, New Orleans Saints, and Los Angeles Chargers. Desmond Ridder appears likely to continue at quarterback, in part due to starter Aidan O’Connell's knee injury.
Simulations and Statistical Insights
As simulation models attempt to predict the unpredictable, the Giants emerge with a 38.6% chance of clinching the coveted No. 1 draft pick, despite projections suggesting they might win up to three games by season’s end. The Raiders follow not too far behind, with their chances pegged at 20.31%, and they are also projected to finish the season with three wins.
While the spotlight has largely been on the Giants and Raiders, it's worth noting that several other teams have a similar 3-11 record, including the New England Patriots, Carolina Panthers, and Cleveland Browns. The Patriots face a daunting pair of contests against the Buffalo Bills, alongside a showdown with the Chargers. Meanwhile, the Browns must navigate matchups against the Cincinnati Bengals, Baltimore Ravens, and the Miami Dolphins, with Dorian Thompson-Robinson poised to lead the Browns over the benched veteran Jameis Winston.
Interestingly, models assign the Browns a 13.32% probability of securing the top draft slot, underscoring the competitive stakes among these struggling franchises.
A Season’s Worth of Uncertainty
This bid for the No. 1 pick is more than just a battle for a high-profile draft spot; it’s emblematic of the vortex of challenges and opportunities that struggling teams face in their bid to rebuild and return to relevance. As the 2024 season winds down, the Giants and Raiders — despite their current records — remain teams to watch. Their upcoming decisions will likely reverberate through the league, setting the stage for potentially dramatic shifts in team fortunes come draft day.
While neither team wishes to remain in the doldrums of the league for long, they understand that in the NFL, the lows sometimes pave the way for future highs. As they strive to emerge from the shadows of a challenging season, the fruits of their efforts may well hinge on the young quarterback talent they can secure in 2025.