The Denver Nuggets, crowned the 2022/23 NBA champions, are set to face off against the Indiana Pacers at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis on Tuesday night. The game is scheduled to tip-off at 7:00 p.m. ET, with Denver entering as the favorites by a 5-point margin.
Nuggets' Dominance
With a strong record of 30-14, the Nuggets currently hold the third spot in the Western Conference. Their recent form has been impressive, securing four victories in their last five outings and eyeing a third consecutive road win. This streak of success is not new for Denver, as they have won seven out of their last ten games overall. Their offensive firepower was on full display when Nikola Jokic, the team's cornerstone, erupted for an astounding 42 points, 12 rebounds, and eight assists in a single game against the Washington Wizards.
Denver's depth will be slightly tested, however, as Vlatko Cancar, Collin Gillespie, Braxton Key, and Julian Strawther will be sidelined for the upcoming game. Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon, who have both been key contributors this season, are listed as probable and expected to take the court.
Pacers' Struggle and Resilience
Indiana enters the matchup with a respectable 24-19 record, positioning them seventh in the Eastern Conference. Despite losing four of their last five games, the Pacers have demonstrated a strong hold on their home court, winning five out of their last six games at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. However, their resilience will be put to the test, as Tyrese Haliburton is questionable due to a hamstring issue, and Isaiah Jackson and Andrew Nembhard are also doubtful for the game. On the brighter side, Pascal Siakam, a recent acquisition from the Toronto Raptors, scored 21 points in his debut against the Portland Trail Blazers and will be looked upon to make a significant impact.
It's worth noting that the Pacers have struggled in recent matchups against the Nuggets, having not secured a victory over Denver since 2020. Moreover, they've lost their last four home encounters with the Nuggets, which suggests a psychological edge may exist for the visitors.
Statistical Insights
Bet Rivers has priced the Nuggets at -175 on the moneyline, reflecting confidence in Denver's ability to continue their winning ways against Indiana. The total for the game is set at O/U 239, indicating expectations of a high-scoring affair.
The Nuggets' ATS (against the spread) record this season stands at 19-24-1, covering 44.2% of their games. Interestingly, after a win, their ATS percentage drops to 35.7%, and their road ATS record is 8-15-0. Despite these figures, Denver's average margin of victory is five points, aligning with the spread for the upcoming game.
On the other hand, Indiana boasts a more favorable ATS record for the 2023/24 season at 24-18-2, covering 60% of their home games. Particularly as home underdogs, the Pacers have performed well, holding a 5-2 record.
Player Watch
Jokic, ranking 13th in points per game with 26.1, is fourth in the league for rebounds and assists, presenting a formidable challenge for any opposition. Jamal Murray is also contributing significantly, averaging 20.9 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 6.5 assists. For the Pacers, Haliburton leads the team in PPG and assists, but his participation is uncertain due to his injury.
In their previous encounter earlier this month, which Denver won 117-109, Jokic, Murray, and Porter each tallied 25 points, while Aaron Gordon added 20 points. Haliburton did not play in that game, and his potential absence could once again tilt the scales in favor of the Nuggets.
As the two teams prepare to battle it out, the Nuggets aim to extend their winning streak over the Pacers to eight games. With Denver's proven ability to score from multiple areas and Indiana's recent slip-ups, it appears that the defending champions are poised to cover the spread, despite their less-than-stellar ATS record this season.
Quoting an analyst, "Denver have been poor ATS this season, but their average 5-point margin of victory means they could cover here." They continued, "Jokic will be tough to stop, whilst Murray will also need to be covered." They concluded with a nod to Denver's scoring depth, "The Nuggets have proven that they