At Progressive Field, the Minnesota Twins' struggles continued as they squandered a three-run lead to fall 4-3 to the Cleveland Guardians. This defeat marks their 18th loss in the last 27 games, a period defined by missed opportunities and unreliable performances.
Griffin Jax stood on the mound in the bottom of the eighth, tasked with preserving the slim lead. However, Kyle Manzardo had other plans, sending a game-winning two-run homer over the wall. The disappointment was palpable. "It's pretty heartbreaking. We're kind of running on fumes as a staff," Jax lamented after the game.
Such challenges have cast a shadow on the Twins' postseason hopes. With only a 1 1/2 game lead for the third AL wild-card spot, their grasp on a playoff berth feels tenuous. Once bestowed with a promising 95.4% chance by FanGraphs, their postseason odds have dwindled to 76.4% since September 5.
The Twins’ lineup has struggled mightily, scoring more than three runs in just 12 of their last 27 games. During this stretch, they are batting .236 with an on-base percentage of .296 and a slugging percentage of .381. Their woes are particularly glaring when the bases are empty, hitting .272, ranking them the fourth worst in this scenario. “If we're able to do what we need to do on the offensive end, we win, but we did not. We have to do better and we have to put nine innings together," echoed Rocco Baldelli's sentiments on the offensive struggles.
While the return of Max Kepler offers a glimmer of hope, it’s clear that the Twins need more consistent production across the roster. Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa have shown potential this month, going a combined 5 for 15 with two doubles and a homer, but it hasn't been enough to turn the tide.
Compounding their offensive struggles, the Twins' bullpen, which had been a strength earlier in the season with a 3.84 ERA and a tenth ranking in win probability added (plus-3.41) over the first 123 games, has faltered significantly. Over the last 27 games, the bullpen’s ERA has ballooned to 5.47, and their win probability added is a league-worst minus-2.75. "We have to find ourselves as a team. We've been looking over the last month as far as who we are and how we're going to do this," Baldelli added, highlighting the broader quest for cohesion.
The rotation is not without its issues either. In the same 27-game stretch, the starting pitchers have posted a collective 6.07 ERA and averaged merely 4.38 innings per start. The fatigue is evident as the team has endured an intense schedule, playing 17 games over the last 18 days. Pablo López captured the sentiment, noting, "Our margin of error keeps shrinking and shrinking. Now it's to the point where you've got to take it one day at a time, one pitch at a time, one at-bat at a time. Today will be a tough pill to swallow."
In efforts to bolster their staff, the Twins claimed lefty Cole Irvin off waivers from the Baltimore Orioles. Irvin, who had a 4.86 ERA in 16 starts and nine relief appearances, offers a versatile arm that the Twins hope can provide the necessary support. "We were thinking, how do we lengthen out what we already have? He could be your prototypical swingman who can pitch out of the bullpen. We don't have a left-handed starter in the mix right now either. He just adds another guy that we think can help," said Derek Falvey.
The Twins' recent slump has already cost them several leads late in games. In five of their last 18 losses, they held the lead in the seventh inning or later and were tied in the seventh inning or later on two other occasions. This inability to close out games looms large as they navigate an increasingly tight race for postseason spots. The Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners, both only two games behind the Twins, are breathing down their necks. Notably, the Tigers have gone an impressive 23-10 in their last 33 games. However, the Twins do hold crucial tiebreakers over both the Tigers and Mariners, which could prove decisive.
As they head into the final stretch of the season, the Twins face an uphill battle to solidify their postseason aspirations. With every game carrying significant weight, the importance of maintaining focus and execution can't be overstated. "We have to put nine innings together," Baldelli stressed once more, encapsulating the unified effort the team desperately needs to turn their fortunes around.